The shortcomings of accurate rate estimations in cultivation processes and a solution for precise and robust process modeling

The accurate estimation of cell growth or the substrate consumption rate is crucial for the understanding of the current state of a bioprocess. Rates unveil the actual cell status, making them valuable for quality-by-design concepts. However, in bioprocesses, the real rates are commonly not accessible due to analytical errors. We simulated Escherichia coli fed-batch fermentations, sampled at four different intervals and added five levels of noise to mimic analytical inaccuracy. We computed stepwise integral estimations with and without using moving average estimations, and smoothing spline interpolations to compare the accuracy and precision of each method to calculate the rates. We demonstrate that stepwise integration results in low accuracy and precision, especially at higher sampling frequencies. Contrary, a simple smoothing spline function displayed both the highest accuracy and precision regardless of the chosen sampling interval. Based on this, we tested three different options for substrate uptake rate estimations. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00449-019-02214-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.