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An Ensemble Trajectory Method for Real-Time Modeling and Prediction of Unfolding Epidemics: Analysis of the 2005 Marburg Fever Outbreak in Angola
We propose a new methodology for the modeling and real time prediction of the course of unfolding epidemic outbreaks. The method posits a class of standard epidemic models and explores uncertainty in empirical data to set up a family of possible outbreak trajectories that span the probability distri...
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| Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
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2009
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| Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121466/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_7 |