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Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty()
This letter highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that the two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up to 7...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2020
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7282785/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32546878 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109302 |