Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea

INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RES...

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Autores principales: Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi, Aragon, Davi Casale, Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT 2020
Materias:
Short Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7451501/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32876321
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0481-2020
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author Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
author_facet Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
author_sort Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
collection PubMed
description INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS: The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.
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spelling pubmed-74515012020-08-31 Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi Aragon, Davi Casale Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido Rev Soc Bras Med Trop Short Communication INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data. RESULTS: The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model. CONCLUSIONS: Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution. Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT 2020-08-26 /pmc/articles/PMC7451501/ /pubmed/32876321 http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0481-2020 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
spellingShingle Short Communication
Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Aragon, Davi Casale
Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido
Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
title Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
title_full Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
title_fullStr Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
title_full_unstemmed Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
title_short Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
title_sort long-term forecasts of the covid-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
topic Short Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7451501/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32876321
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0481-2020
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AT aragondavicasale longtermforecastsofthecovid19epidemicadangerousidea
AT nunesaltacilioaparecido longtermforecastsofthecovid19epidemicadangerousidea

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