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On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management. We use the COVID-19 pandemic as the background for the discussion and...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
| Publicado: |
International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V.
2020
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7572356/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33100449 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008 |