Short-term forecast in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Application of a weighted and cumulative average daily growth rate to an exponential decay model

To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the early stage in Italy, this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate (WR) to evaluate an epidemic curve. On the basis of an exponential decay model (EDM), we provide estimations of the WR in four-tim...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Bartolomeo, Nicola, Trerotoli, Paolo, Serio, Gabriella
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2020
Materias:
Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7773318/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33398249
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.007

Internet

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7773318/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33398249
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.007

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