Reducción de carnes rojas y procesadas en la población española: ¿cuál es su impacto sobre la mortalidad cardiovascular?

OBJECTIVE: Quantify the impact of reducing the consumption of red/processed meats on cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality of the Spanish adult population based in 5 revisions published. PARTICIPANTS AND MAIN MEASUREMENTS: We defined exposure as consumption of ≥ 3 servings/week of red or processed meats and considered four possible scenarios of exposed population (30%-60%). Based on data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute, we calculated the weighted mortality between 40 and 80 years. Using the relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) published by the referred revisions (RR = 0.88; IC 95%: 0.84-0.93 for all-cause mortality and RR = 0.92; IC 95%: 0.90-0.93 for cardiovascular mortality), we calculated the expected mortality rate in both exposed and unexposed categories. By multiplying these rates by the number of exposed individuals, we estimated the attributable number of yearly deaths. RESULTS: If 60% of the population was exposed, with a 95% CI, the number of cardiovascular deaths that could be averted each year if population consumed < 3 servings/week of red or processed meats was between 2.112 and 3.055. If was exposed that 30%, the difference in the yearly number of potentially averted deaths was between 1.079 and 1.577. CONCLUSIONS: Even under the most conservative assumption, the benefit, at the population level, of reducing red or processed meats consumption < 3 servings/week on cardiovascular mortality is important. The conclusions of the recently published reviews contradicted their own results and contributed to a state of confusion that can create substantial harm for public health.