Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity: a prospective cohort study of UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity among UK adults. METHODS: Participants aged 40–69 years at recruitment in the UK Biobank (2006–2019) with dietary intakes collected using 24-h recall and repeated measures of adiposity––body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and percentage of body fat (% BF)––were included (N = 22,659; median follow-up: 5 years). Ultra-processed foods were identified using the NOVA classification and their consumption was expressed as a percentage of total energy intake. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of several indicators of obesity according to ultra-processed food consumption. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. RESULTS: 947 incident cases of overall obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) and 1900 incident cases of abdominal obesity (men: WC ≥ 102 cm, women: WC ≥ 88 cm) were identified during follow-up. Participants in the highest quartile of ultra-processed food consumption had significantly higher risk of developing overall obesity (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.06─3.03) and abdominal obesity (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.14─1.48). They had higher risk of experiencing a ≥ 5% increase in BMI (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.20─1.43), WC (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.25─1.45) and %BF (HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03─1.25), than those in the lowest quartile of consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that higher consumption of ultra-processed food is strongly associated with a higher risk of multiple indicators of obesity in the UK adult population. Policy makers should consider actions that promote consumption of fresh or minimally processed foods and reduce consumption of ultra-processed foods. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00394-020-02367-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.