The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states
We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Netherlands
2021
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8192111/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34114189 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00766-0 |
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author | Pozo-Martin, Francisco Weishaar, Heide Cristea, Florin Hanefeld, Johanna Bahr, Thurid Schaade, Lars El Bcheraoui, Charbel |
author_facet | Pozo-Martin, Francisco Weishaar, Heide Cristea, Florin Hanefeld, Johanna Bahr, Thurid Schaade, Lars El Bcheraoui, Charbel |
author_sort | Pozo-Martin, Francisco |
collection | PubMed |
description | We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00766-0. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8192111 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Springer Netherlands |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-81921112021-06-11 The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states Pozo-Martin, Francisco Weishaar, Heide Cristea, Florin Hanefeld, Johanna Bahr, Thurid Schaade, Lars El Bcheraoui, Charbel Eur J Epidemiol Covid-19 We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00766-0. Springer Netherlands 2021-06-10 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8192111/ /pubmed/34114189 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00766-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Covid-19 Pozo-Martin, Francisco Weishaar, Heide Cristea, Florin Hanefeld, Johanna Bahr, Thurid Schaade, Lars El Bcheraoui, Charbel The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states |
title | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states |
title_full | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states |
title_fullStr | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states |
title_full_unstemmed | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states |
title_short | The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states |
title_sort | impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on covid-19 epidemic growth in the 37 oecd member states |
topic | Covid-19 |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8192111/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34114189 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00766-0 |
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