Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19

OBJECTIVES: The development of a prognostic mortality risk model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients may facilitate patient treatment planning, comparisons of therapeutic strategies, and public health preparations. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic health records of patients hospita...

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Autores principales: Berry, Donald A., Ip, Andrew, Lewis, Brett E., Berry, Scott M., Berry, Nicholas S., MrKulic, Mary, Gadalla, Virginia, Sat, Burcu, Wright, Kristen, Serna, Michelle, Unawane, Rashmi, Trpeski, Katerina, Koropsak, Michael, Kaur, Puneet, Sica, Zachary, McConnell, Andrew, Bednarz, Urszula, Marafelias, Michael, Goy, Andre H., Pecora, Andrew L., Sawczuk, Ihor S., Goldberg, Stuart L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8323891/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34329317
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255228
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author Berry, Donald A.
Ip, Andrew
Lewis, Brett E.
Berry, Scott M.
Berry, Nicholas S.
MrKulic, Mary
Gadalla, Virginia
Sat, Burcu
Wright, Kristen
Serna, Michelle
Unawane, Rashmi
Trpeski, Katerina
Koropsak, Michael
Kaur, Puneet
Sica, Zachary
McConnell, Andrew
Bednarz, Urszula
Marafelias, Michael
Goy, Andre H.
Pecora, Andrew L.
Sawczuk, Ihor S.
Goldberg, Stuart L.
author_facet Berry, Donald A.
Ip, Andrew
Lewis, Brett E.
Berry, Scott M.
Berry, Nicholas S.
MrKulic, Mary
Gadalla, Virginia
Sat, Burcu
Wright, Kristen
Serna, Michelle
Unawane, Rashmi
Trpeski, Katerina
Koropsak, Michael
Kaur, Puneet
Sica, Zachary
McConnell, Andrew
Bednarz, Urszula
Marafelias, Michael
Goy, Andre H.
Pecora, Andrew L.
Sawczuk, Ihor S.
Goldberg, Stuart L.
author_sort Berry, Donald A.
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: The development of a prognostic mortality risk model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients may facilitate patient treatment planning, comparisons of therapeutic strategies, and public health preparations. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic health records of patients hospitalized within a 13-hospital New Jersey USA network between March 1, 2020 and April 22, 2020 with positive polymerase chain reaction results for SARS-CoV-2, with follow-up through May 29, 2020. With death or hospital discharge by day 40 as the primary endpoint, we used univariate followed by stepwise multivariate proportional hazard models to develop a risk score on one-half the data set, validated on the remainder, and converted the risk score into a patient-level predictive probability of 40-day mortality based on the combined dataset. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 3123 hospitalized COVID-19 patients; median age 63 years; 60% were men; 42% had >3 coexisting conditions. 713 (23%) patients died within 40 days of hospitalization for COVID-19. From 22 potential candidate factors 6 were found to be independent predictors of mortality and were included in the risk score model: age, respiratory rate ≥25/minute upon hospital presentation, oxygenation <94% on hospital presentation, and pre-hospital comorbidities of hypertension, coronary artery disease, or chronic renal disease. The risk score was highly prognostic of mortality in a training set and confirmatory set yielding in the combined dataset a hazard ratio of 1.80 (95% CI, 1.72, 1.87) for one unit increases. Using observed mortality within 20 equally sized bins of risk scores, a predictive model for an individual’s 40-day risk of mortality was generated as -14.258 + 13.460*RS + 1.585*(RS–2.524)^2–0.403*(RS–2.524)^3. An online calculator of this 40-day COVID-19 mortality risk score is available at www.HackensackMeridianHealth.org/CovidRS. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score using six variables is able to prognosticate mortality within 40-days of hospitalization for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04347993.
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spelling pubmed-83238912021-07-31 Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 Berry, Donald A. Ip, Andrew Lewis, Brett E. Berry, Scott M. Berry, Nicholas S. MrKulic, Mary Gadalla, Virginia Sat, Burcu Wright, Kristen Serna, Michelle Unawane, Rashmi Trpeski, Katerina Koropsak, Michael Kaur, Puneet Sica, Zachary McConnell, Andrew Bednarz, Urszula Marafelias, Michael Goy, Andre H. Pecora, Andrew L. Sawczuk, Ihor S. Goldberg, Stuart L. PLoS One Research Article OBJECTIVES: The development of a prognostic mortality risk model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients may facilitate patient treatment planning, comparisons of therapeutic strategies, and public health preparations. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic health records of patients hospitalized within a 13-hospital New Jersey USA network between March 1, 2020 and April 22, 2020 with positive polymerase chain reaction results for SARS-CoV-2, with follow-up through May 29, 2020. With death or hospital discharge by day 40 as the primary endpoint, we used univariate followed by stepwise multivariate proportional hazard models to develop a risk score on one-half the data set, validated on the remainder, and converted the risk score into a patient-level predictive probability of 40-day mortality based on the combined dataset. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 3123 hospitalized COVID-19 patients; median age 63 years; 60% were men; 42% had >3 coexisting conditions. 713 (23%) patients died within 40 days of hospitalization for COVID-19. From 22 potential candidate factors 6 were found to be independent predictors of mortality and were included in the risk score model: age, respiratory rate ≥25/minute upon hospital presentation, oxygenation <94% on hospital presentation, and pre-hospital comorbidities of hypertension, coronary artery disease, or chronic renal disease. The risk score was highly prognostic of mortality in a training set and confirmatory set yielding in the combined dataset a hazard ratio of 1.80 (95% CI, 1.72, 1.87) for one unit increases. Using observed mortality within 20 equally sized bins of risk scores, a predictive model for an individual’s 40-day risk of mortality was generated as -14.258 + 13.460*RS + 1.585*(RS–2.524)^2–0.403*(RS–2.524)^3. An online calculator of this 40-day COVID-19 mortality risk score is available at www.HackensackMeridianHealth.org/CovidRS. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score using six variables is able to prognosticate mortality within 40-days of hospitalization for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04347993. Public Library of Science 2021-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8323891/ /pubmed/34329317 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255228 Text en © 2021 Berry et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Berry, Donald A.
Ip, Andrew
Lewis, Brett E.
Berry, Scott M.
Berry, Nicholas S.
MrKulic, Mary
Gadalla, Virginia
Sat, Burcu
Wright, Kristen
Serna, Michelle
Unawane, Rashmi
Trpeski, Katerina
Koropsak, Michael
Kaur, Puneet
Sica, Zachary
McConnell, Andrew
Bednarz, Urszula
Marafelias, Michael
Goy, Andre H.
Pecora, Andrew L.
Sawczuk, Ihor S.
Goldberg, Stuart L.
Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19
title Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19
title_full Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19
title_fullStr Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19
title_short Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19
title_sort development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with covid-19
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8323891/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34329317
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255228
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