The Public Health Impact of Implementing a Concentration‐Based Microbiological Criterion for Controlling Salmonella in Ground Turkey

Despite initiatives to improve the safety of poultry products in the United States, progress has stalled, and salmonellosis incidence is still above Healthy People 2020's goal. One strategy to manage Salmonella and verify process control in poultry establishments is to implement microbiological criteria (MC) linked to public health outcomes. Concentration‐based MC have been used by the food industry; however, the public health impact of such approaches is only starting to be assessed. This study evaluated the public health impact of a concentration‐based MC for Salmonella in raw ground turkey consumed in the United States using a quantitative risk assessment modeling approach. The distribution of Salmonella concentration in ground turkey was derived from USDA‐FSIS monitoring surveys. Other variables and parameters were derived from public databases, literature, and expert opinion. Based on considered concentrations, implementing a MC of 1 cell/g led to an estimated 46.1% reduction (preventable fraction, PF) in the mean probability of illness when consumer cooking and cross‐contamination were included. The PF was consistent across scenarios including or excluding cross‐contamination and cooking, with slightly lower mean PF when cross‐contamination was included. The proportion of lots not compliant with the 1 cell/g MC was 1.05% in the main scenarios and increased nonlinearly when higher Salmonella concentrations were assumed. Assumptions on concentration variability across lots and within lots had a large impact, highlighting the benefit of reducing this uncertainty. These approach and results can help inform the development of MC to monitor and control Salmonella in ground turkey products.