Machine learning modeling of genome-wide copy number alteration signatures reliably predicts IDH mutational status in adult diffuse glioma

Knowledge of 1p/19q-codeletion and IDH1/2 mutational status is necessary to interpret any investigational study of diffuse gliomas in the modern era. While DNA sequencing is the gold standard for determining IDH mutational status, genome-wide methylation arrays and gene expression profiling have been used for surrogate mutational determination. Previous studies by our group suggest that 1p/19q-codeletion and IDH mutational status can be predicted by genome-wide somatic copy number alteration (SCNA) data alone, however a rigorous model to accomplish this task has yet to be established. In this study, we used SCNA data from 786 adult diffuse gliomas in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to develop a two-stage classification system that identifies 1p/19q-codeleted oligodendrogliomas and predicts the IDH mutational status of astrocytic tumors using a machine-learning model. Cross-validated results on TCGA SCNA data showed near perfect classification results. Furthermore, our astrocytic IDH mutation model validated well on four additional datasets (AUC = 0.97, AUC = 0.99, AUC = 0.95, AUC = 0.96) as did our 1p/19q-codeleted oligodendroglioma screen on the two datasets that contained oligodendrogliomas (MCC = 0.97, MCC = 0.97). We then retrained our system using data from these validation sets and applied our system to a cohort of REMBRANDT study subjects for whom SCNA data, but not IDH mutational status, is available. Overall, using genome-wide SCNAs, we successfully developed a system to robustly predict 1p/19q-codeletion and IDH mutational status in diffuse gliomas. This system can assign molecular subtype labels to tumor samples of retrospective diffuse glioma cohorts that lack 1p/19q-codeletion and IDH mutational status, such as the REMBRANDT study, recasting these datasets as validation cohorts for diffuse glioma research. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40478-021-01295-3.