Dynamics of latent HIV under clonal expansion

The HIV latent reservoir exhibits slow decay on antiretroviral therapy (ART), impacted by homeostatic proliferation and activation. How these processes contribute to the total dynamic while also producing the observed profile of sampled latent clone sizes is unclear. An agent-based model was developed that tracks individual latent clones, incorporating homeostatic proliferation of cells and activation of clones. The model was calibrated to produce observed latent reservoir dynamics as well as observed clonal size profiles. Simulations were compared to previously published latent HIV integration data from 5 adults and 3 children. The model simulations reproduced reservoir dynamics as well as generating residual plasma viremia levels (pVL) consistent with observations on ART. Over 382 Latin Hypercube Sample simulations, the median latent reservoir grew by only 0.3 log(10) over the 10 years prior to ART initiation, after which time it decreased with a half-life of 15 years, despite number of clones decreasing at a faster rate. Activation produced a maximum size of genetically intact clones of around one million cells. The individual simulation that best reproduced the sampled clone profile, produced a reservoir that decayed with a 13.9 year half-life and where pVL, produced mainly from proliferation, decayed with a half-life of 10.8 years. These slow decay rates were achieved with mean cell life-spans of only 14.2 months, due to expansion of the reservoir through proliferation and activation. Although the reservoir decayed on ART, a number of clones increased in size more than 4,000-fold. While small sampled clones may have expanded through proliferation, the large sizes exclusively arose from activation. Simulations where homeostatic proliferation contributed more to pVL than activation, produced pVL that was less variable over time and exhibited fewer viral blips. While homeostatic proliferation adds to the latent reservoir, activation can both add and remove latent cells. Latent activation can produce large clones, where these may have been seeded much earlier than when first sampled. Elimination of the reservoir is complicated by expanding clones whose dynamic differ considerably to that of the entire reservoir.