Modelling Virgin Olive Oil Potential Shelf-Life from Antioxidants and Lipid Oxidation Progress

The development of effective shelf-life prediction models is extremely important for the olive oil industry. This research is the continuation of a previous accelerated shelf-life test at mild temperature (40–60 °C), applied in this case to evaluate the oxidation effect of temperature on minor components (phenols, tocopherol, pigments) to properly complete a shelf-life predictive model. The kinetic behaviour of phenolic compounds, α-tocopherol and pigments during storage of different virgin olive oil samples at different temperatures (25–60 °C) is reported. Hydroxytyrosol, tyrosol and α-tocopherol fitted to pseudo-zero-order kinetics, whereas secoiridoid derivatives of hydroxytyrosol and tyrosol, o-diphenols and total phenols apparently followed pseudo-first-order kinetics. The temperature-dependent kinetic of phenolic compounds and α-tocopherol were well described by the linear Arrhenius model. The apparent activation energy was calculated. Principal component analysis was used to transform the considered compositional and degradation variables into fewer uncorrelated principal components resulting in 4: “no oxidizable substrate”, “initial oxidation state and conditions”, “free simple phenols”, and “degradation rates”. In addition, multivariate linear regression was used to yield several modelling equations for shelf-life prediction, considering initial composition and experimental variables easily determined in accelerated storage.