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Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers
We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number (R) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is fundamentally difficult to detect in real time. Inherent latencies in pathogen transmission, coupled with smaller and intrinsically noisier c...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2022
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9022826/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35404936 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010004 |