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Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative...

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Autores principales: Cramer, Estee Y., Ray, Evan L., Lopez, Velma K., Bracher, Johannes, Brennen, Andrea, Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J., Gerding, Aaron, Gneiting, Tilmann, House, Katie H., Huang, Yuxin, Jayawardena, Dasuni, Kanji, Abdul H., Khandelwal, Ayush, Le, Khoa, Mühlemann, Anja, Niemi, Jarad, Shah, Apurv, Stark, Ariane, Wang, Yijin, Wattanachit, Nutcha, Zorn, Martha W., Gu, Youyang, Jain, Sansiddh, Bannur, Nayana, Deva, Ayush, Kulkarni, Mihir, Merugu, Srujana, Raval, Alpan, Shingi, Siddhant, Tiwari, Avtansh, White, Jerome, Abernethy, Neil F., Woody, Spencer, Dahan, Maytal, Fox, Spencer, Gaither, Kelly, Lachmann, Michael, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Scott, James G., Tec, Mauricio, Srivastava, Ajitesh, George, Glover E., Cegan, Jeffrey C., Dettwiller, Ian D., England, William P., Farthing, Matthew W., Hunter, Robert H., Lafferty, Brandon, Linkov, Igor, Mayo, Michael L., Parno, Matthew D., Rowland, Michael A., Trump, Benjamin D., Zhang-James, Yanli, Chen, Samuel, Faraone, Stephen V., Hess, Jonathan, Morley, Christopher P., Salekin, Asif, Wang, Dongliang, Corsetti, Sabrina M., Baer, Thomas M., Eisenberg, Marisa C., Falb, Karl, Huang, Yitao, Martin, Emily T., McCauley, Ella, Myers, Robert L., Schwarz, Tom, Sheldon, Daniel, Gibson, Graham Casey, Yu, Rose, Gao, Liyao, Ma, Yian, Wu, Dongxia, Yan, Xifeng, Jin, Xiaoyong, Wang, Yu-Xiang, Chen, YangQuan, Guo, Lihong, Zhao, Yanting, Gu, Quanquan, Chen, Jinghui, Wang, Lingxiao, Xu, Pan, Zhang, Weitong, Zou, Difan, Biegel, Hannah, Lega, Joceline, McConnell, Steve, Nagraj, V. P., Guertin, Stephanie L., Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, Turner, Stephen D., Shi, Yunfeng, Ban, Xuegang, Walraven, Robert, Hong, Qi-Jun, Kong, Stanley, van de Walle, Axel, Turtle, James A., Ben-Nun, Michal, Riley, Steven, Riley, Pete, Koyluoglu, Ugur, DesRoches, David, Forli, Pedro, Hamory, Bruce, Kyriakides, Christina, Leis, Helen, Milliken, John, Moloney, Michael, Morgan, James, Nirgudkar, Ninad, Ozcan, Gokce, Piwonka, Noah, Ravi, Matt, Schrader, Chris, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, Siegel, Daniel, Spatz, Ryan, Stiefeling, Chris, Wilkinson, Barrie, Wong, Alexander, Cavany, Sean, España, Guido, Moore, Sean, Oidtman, Rachel, Perkins, Alex, Kraus, David, Kraus, Andrea, Gao, Zhifeng, Bian, Jiang, Cao, Wei, Ferres, Juan Lavista, Li, Chaozhuo, Liu, Tie-Yan, Xie, Xing, Zhang, Shun, Zheng, Shun, Vespignani, Alessandro, Chinazzi, Matteo, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Xiong, Xinyue, Zheng, Andrew, Baek, Jackie, Farias, Vivek, Georgescu, Andreea, Levi, Retsef, Sinha, Deeksha, Wilde, Joshua, Perakis, Georgia, Bennouna, Mohammed Amine, Nze-Ndong, David, Singhvi, Divya, Spantidakis, Ioannis, Thayaparan, Leann, Tsiourvas, Asterios, Sarker, Arnab, Jadbabaie, Ali, Shah, Devavrat, Della Penna, Nicolas, Celi, Leo A., Sundar, Saketh, Wolfinger, Russ, Osthus, Dave, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Michaud, Isaac, Karlen, Dean, Kinsey, Matt, Mullany, Luke C., Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, Shin, Lauren, Tallaksen, Katharine, Wilson, Shelby, Lee, Elizabeth C., Dent, Juan, Grantz, Kyra H., Hill, Alison L., Kaminsky, Joshua, Kaminsky, Kathryn, Keegan, Lindsay T., Lauer, Stephen A., Lemaitre, Joseph C., Lessler, Justin, Meredith, Hannah R., Perez-Saez, Javier, Shah, Sam, Smith, Claire P., Truelove, Shaun A., Wills, Josh, Marshall, Maximilian, Gardner, Lauren, Nixon, Kristen, Burant, John C., Wang, Lily, Gao, Lei, Gu, Zhiling, Kim, Myungjin, Li, Xinyi, Wang, Guannan, Wang, Yueying, Yu, Shan, Reiner, Robert C., Barber, Ryan, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Hay, Simon I., Lim, Steve, Murray, Chris, Pigott, David, Gurung, Heidi L., Baccam, Prasith, Stage, Steven A., Suchoski, Bradley T., Prakash, B. Aditya, Adhikari, Bijaya, Cui, Jiaming, Rodríguez, Alexander, Tabassum, Anika, Xie, Jiajia, Keskinocak, Pinar, Asplund, John, Baxter, Arden, Oruc, Buse Eylul, Serban, Nicoleta, Arik, Sercan O., Dusenberry, Mike, Epshteyn, Arkady, Kanal, Elli, Le, Long T., Li, Chun-Liang, Pfister, Tomas, Sava, Dario, Sinha, Rajarishi, Tsai, Thomas, Yoder, Nate, Yoon, Jinsung, Zhang, Leyou, Abbott, Sam, Bosse, Nikos I., Funk, Sebastian, Hellewell, Joel, Meakin, Sophie R., Sherratt, Katharine, Zhou, Mingyuan, Kalantari, Rahi, Yamana, Teresa K., Pei, Sen, Shaman, Jeffrey, Li, Michael L., Bertsimas, Dimitris, Lami, Omar Skali, Soni, Saksham, Bouardi, Hamza Tazi, Ayer, Turgay, Adee, Madeline, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, Dalgic, Ozden O., Ladd, Mary A., Linas, Benjamin P., Mueller, Peter, Xiao, Jade, Wang, Yuanjia, Wang, Qinxia, Xie, Shanghong, Zeng, Donglin, Green, Alden, Bien, Jacob, Brooks, Logan, Hu, Addison J., Jahja, Maria, McDonald, Daniel, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, Politsch, Collin, Rajanala, Samyak, Rumack, Aaron, Simon, Noah, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Tibshirani, Rob, Ventura, Valerie, Wasserman, Larry, O’Dea, Eamon B., Drake, John M., Pagano, Robert, Tran, Quoc T., Ho, Lam Si Tung, Huynh, Huong, Walker, Jo W., Slayton, Rachel B., Johansson, Michael A., Biggerstaff, Matthew, Reich, Nicholas G.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9169655/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35394862
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119