The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study
BACKGROUND: Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption. METHODS: We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-200...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Elsevier
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9250035/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35789827 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100510 |
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author | Ng, Carmen S. Au, Minnie Ma, Robyn Leung, June Y.Y. Quan, Jianchao |
author_facet | Ng, Carmen S. Au, Minnie Ma, Robyn Leung, June Y.Y. Quan, Jianchao |
author_sort | Ng, Carmen S. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption. METHODS: We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions. FINDINGS: An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men. INTERPRETATION: Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease. FUNDING: Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067]. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9250035 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Elsevier |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-92500352022-07-03 The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study Ng, Carmen S. Au, Minnie Ma, Robyn Leung, June Y.Y. Quan, Jianchao Lancet Reg Health West Pac Articles BACKGROUND: Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption. METHODS: We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions. FINDINGS: An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men. INTERPRETATION: Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease. FUNDING: Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067]. Elsevier 2022-06-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9250035/ /pubmed/35789827 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100510 Text en © 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Articles Ng, Carmen S. Au, Minnie Ma, Robyn Leung, June Y.Y. Quan, Jianchao The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
title | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
title_full | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
title_fullStr | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
title_short | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
title_sort | impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in hong kong, china: a modelling study |
topic | Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9250035/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35789827 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100510 |
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