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Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows

We propose a method for forecasting global human migration flows. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to make probabilistic projections of the 39,800 bilateral migration flows among the 200 most populous countries. We generate out-of-sample forecasts for all bilateral flows for the 2015 to 2020 pe...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Welch, Nathan G., Raftery, Adrian E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9436307/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35994637
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203822119