Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Objectives: To develop and internally validate two clinical risk scores to detect coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during local outbreaks. Methods: Medical records were extracted for a retrospective cohort of 336 suspected patients admitted to Baodi hospital between 27 January to 20 February 2020...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9485465/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36147884 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604794 |
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author | Sun, Zhuoyu Guo, Yi’an He, Wei Chen, Shiyue Sun, Changqing Zhu, Hong Li, Jing Chen, Yongjie Du, Yue Wang, Guangshun Yang, Xilin Su, Hongjun |
author_facet | Sun, Zhuoyu Guo, Yi’an He, Wei Chen, Shiyue Sun, Changqing Zhu, Hong Li, Jing Chen, Yongjie Du, Yue Wang, Guangshun Yang, Xilin Su, Hongjun |
author_sort | Sun, Zhuoyu |
collection | PubMed |
description | Objectives: To develop and internally validate two clinical risk scores to detect coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during local outbreaks. Methods: Medical records were extracted for a retrospective cohort of 336 suspected patients admitted to Baodi hospital between 27 January to 20 February 2020. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to develop the risk-scoring models, which were internally validated using a 5-fold cross-validation method and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) tests. Results: Fifty-six cases were diagnosed from the cohort. The first model was developed based on seven significant predictors, including age, close contact with confirmed/suspected cases, same location of exposure, temperature, leukocyte counts, radiological findings of pneumonia and bilateral involvement (the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]:0.88, 95% CI: 0.84–0.93). The second model had the same predictors except leukocyte and radiological findings (AUC: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.89, Z = 2.56, p = 0.01). Both were internally validated using H-L tests and showed good calibration (both p > 0.10). Conclusion: Two clinical risk scores to detect COVID-19 in local outbreaks were developed with excellent predictive performances, using commonly measured clinical variables. Further external validations in new outbreaks are warranted. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9485465 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-94854652022-09-21 Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study Sun, Zhuoyu Guo, Yi’an He, Wei Chen, Shiyue Sun, Changqing Zhu, Hong Li, Jing Chen, Yongjie Du, Yue Wang, Guangshun Yang, Xilin Su, Hongjun Int J Public Health Public Health Archive Objectives: To develop and internally validate two clinical risk scores to detect coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during local outbreaks. Methods: Medical records were extracted for a retrospective cohort of 336 suspected patients admitted to Baodi hospital between 27 January to 20 February 2020. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to develop the risk-scoring models, which were internally validated using a 5-fold cross-validation method and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) tests. Results: Fifty-six cases were diagnosed from the cohort. The first model was developed based on seven significant predictors, including age, close contact with confirmed/suspected cases, same location of exposure, temperature, leukocyte counts, radiological findings of pneumonia and bilateral involvement (the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]:0.88, 95% CI: 0.84–0.93). The second model had the same predictors except leukocyte and radiological findings (AUC: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.89, Z = 2.56, p = 0.01). Both were internally validated using H-L tests and showed good calibration (both p > 0.10). Conclusion: Two clinical risk scores to detect COVID-19 in local outbreaks were developed with excellent predictive performances, using commonly measured clinical variables. Further external validations in new outbreaks are warranted. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-09-06 /pmc/articles/PMC9485465/ /pubmed/36147884 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604794 Text en Copyright © 2022 Sun, Guo, He, Chen, Sun, Zhu, Li, Chen, Du, Wang, Yang and Su. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Public Health Archive Sun, Zhuoyu Guo, Yi’an He, Wei Chen, Shiyue Sun, Changqing Zhu, Hong Li, Jing Chen, Yongjie Du, Yue Wang, Guangshun Yang, Xilin Su, Hongjun Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
title | Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
title_full | Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
title_fullStr | Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
title_full_unstemmed | Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
title_short | Development of Clinical Risk Scores for Detection of COVID-19 in Suspected Patients During a Local Outbreak in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
title_sort | development of clinical risk scores for detection of covid-19 in suspected patients during a local outbreak in china: a retrospective cohort study |
topic | Public Health Archive |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9485465/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36147884 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604794 |
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