Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 emergence algorithm for rationally-designed logical next-generation vaccines

SARS-CoV-2 worldwide spread and evolution has resulted in variants containing mutations resulting in immune evasive epitopes that decrease vaccine efficacy. We acquired SARS-CoV-2 positive clinical samples and compared the worldwide emerged spike mutations from Variants of Concern/Interest, and developed an algorithm for monitoring the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. The algorithm partitions logarithmic-transformed prevalence data monthly and Pearson’s correlation determines exponential emergence of amino acid substitutions (AAS) and lineages. The SARS-CoV-2 genome evaluation indicated 49 mutations, with 44 resulting in AAS. Nine of the ten most worldwide prevalent (>70%) spike protein changes have Pearson’s coefficient r > 0.9. The tenth, D614G, has a prevalence >99% and r-value of 0.67. The resulting algorithm is based on the patterns these ten substitutions elucidated. The strong positive correlation of the emerged spike protein changes and algorithmic predictive value can be harnessed in designing vaccines with relevant immunogenic epitopes. Monitoring, next-generation vaccine design, and mAb clinical efficacy must keep up with SARS-CoV-2 evolution, as the virus is predicted to remain endemic.