Machine learning identification of thresholds to discriminate osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis synovial inflammation

BACKGROUND: We sought to identify features that distinguish osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained synovial tissue samples. METHODS: We compared fourteen pathologist-scored histology features and computer vision-quantified cell density (147 OA and 60 RA patients) in H&E-stained synovial tissue samples from total knee replacement (TKR) explants. A random forest model was trained using disease state (OA vs RA) as a classifier and histology features and/or computer vision-quantified cell density as inputs. RESULTS: Synovium from OA patients had increased mast cells and fibrosis (p < 0.001), while synovium from RA patients exhibited increased lymphocytic inflammation, lining hyperplasia, neutrophils, detritus, plasma cells, binucleate plasma cells, sub-lining giant cells, fibrin (all p < 0.001), Russell bodies (p = 0.019), and synovial lining giant cells (p = 0.003). Fourteen pathologist-scored features allowed for discrimination between OA and RA, producing a micro-averaged area under the receiver operating curve (micro-AUC) of 0.85±0.06. This discriminatory ability was comparable to that of computer vision cell density alone (micro-AUC = 0.87±0.04). Combining the pathologist scores with the cell density metric improved the discriminatory power of the model (micro-AUC = 0.92±0.06). The optimal cell density threshold to distinguish OA from RA synovium was 3400 cells/mm(2), which yielded a sensitivity of 0.82 and specificity of 0.82. CONCLUSIONS: H&E-stained images of TKR explant synovium can be correctly classified as OA or RA in 82% of samples. Cell density greater than 3400 cells/mm(2) and the presence of mast cells and fibrosis are the most important features for making this distinction. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-023-03008-8.